It’s true the recent surge in almond pricing has provided better margins for growers. Almond prices increased 17% from 2022 to 2023; formerly less than $2 per pound, prices have since rebounded to more than $2.40 per pound in 2024.
Higher pricing trends help and/or hurt growers into the new year. The recent price increase is likely to have a positive impact on growers, enabling them to reinvest in their farms to improve short-term yields and improve long-term sustainability. Higher margins enable many growers to tackle key challenges with aging orchards, water scarcity, and rising labor costs by:
- Upgrading Orchards: Replacing lower-yielding or older orchards with new, more productive varieties can help. Additionally, precision agriculture tools can help identify exactly which part of their farms and fields need replanting and budget accordingly
- Investing in Resilience: Implementing solutions to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events can help, such as improved irrigation systems or real-time monitoring technology. As well, implementing Ceres Irrigation optimization can help level-up the irrigation strategy and Ceres Damage assessment can help accurately determine the damage that occurs after weather events to take action accordingly.
- Operational Expansion: Allocating more resources to expand footprints and/or diversify crop production to balance risks can help. And precision agriculture tools can help to create operational efficiency and help free up time for boots on the ground to focus on critical issues.
Ultimately, higher margins provide opportunities to upgrade equipment, adopt precision agriculture tools, and implement advanced irrigation systems for better resource management.
However, growers may face challenges from increasing input costs, including water, fertilizers, and specialized labor, as higher margins often coincide with rising operational expenses. This underscores the importance of maximizing every acre’s productivity and efficiency.
Can almond pricing remain higher, and for how long?
Given the supply chain recovery from prior disruptions and the improving global demand, pricing could remain elevated for the next 12–18 months. Much of this depends on macroeconomic factors, including inflation stabilization, export demand, and any significant changes in almond yields globally.
Weather variability will also play a key role. For example, if adverse conditions affect key growing regions, prices may stay higher for an extended period as global supply tightens.
That said, almond pricing could dip if the following were to occur:
- Oversupply: A surge in production, especially if growers expand acreage in response to higher prices, could flood the market within a few years.
- Reduced Export Demand: Changes in trade policies, geopolitical tensions, or weaker economic growth in major importing countries like India and China could cause prices to decrease.
- Increased Competition: Alternate nut crops or synthetic alternatives could capture market share.
Growers should monitor these trends to remain agile and adopt strategies like diversifying crop portfolios or improving yield quality to stay competitive.
How can technology advances bring even better margins?
AI-powered tools can revolutionize how almond farms are managed, offering data-driven insights that significantly reduce input costs while maximizing yields. For example:
- Precision Irrigation: AI can optimize water usage by analyzing soil moisture, weather patterns, and evapotranspiration rates, ultimately lowering water bills and improving tree health.
- Yield Prediction: Accurate forecasting helps growers plan logistics, manage inventory, and negotiate contracts, reducing wastage and improving profitability.
- Pest and Disease Management: AI-enabled early detection can identify subtle signs of pest infestations or diseases, allowing growers to take targeted action before problems escalate.
- Damage Assessment for Risk Mitigation: AI can assess damage from weather events, such as frost or hail, with high accuracy. This enables growers to secure better insurance policies and ensures fair and timely payouts in case of claims, reducing financial uncertainty.
- Input Management: AI can analyze historical data and current field conditions to optimize the use of fertilizers, pesticides, and other inputs. This ensures the right quantity is applied at the right time, minimizing costs while maximizing plant health and yield potential.
- Plant Monitoring: Precision agriculture tools powered by AI can provide real-time monitoring of plant health, identifying nutrient deficiencies or irrigation issues at the plant level, leading to more informed interventions.
- Labor Optimization: AI-driven tools can optimize labor allocation by predicting work schedules for pruning, harvesting, or maintenance, reducing reliance on expensive or inefficient practices.
By integrating these technologies, growers can improve margins by reducing input waste, mitigating risk, and achieving higher-quality yields. These advancements also enhance growers’ ability to navigate volatile markets and weather challenges with greater confidence. To find out more about leveraging almond prices with precision agriculture tools, contact us.